This is assuming equal skill level between the teams, of course - if the Lucio on a KotH map is healing a team that couldn't stick together if you glued them to the floor, while the Mercy is healing a highly coordinated team, the Mercy team is probably going to win. Mercy and Lucio are both sort of situational picks to a point - bringing only a Mercy onto a KotH map is more then likely going to get you trounced by a team with a Lucio, but a team with a mercy on an attack/defend map will more then likely do better then a Lucio, especially if the Mercy is on defense - she can heal targets a lot faster then Lucio ever could, especially when they're split between multiple heights, and never underestimate the ability to save half your team a long trip to the point with Resurrect.
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